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Market UpdatesSeason Forecast

Season forecast: sowing, weather and expected volumes

4 min read
Aerial view of the Kunri mirch mandi and surrounding chilli belt

The Kunri belt in Umerkot district supplies the bulk of Pakistan's dried red chilli. Three things decided before the first picking — acreage, nursery health and monsoon behaviour — shape the whole trading season.

Sowing and nursery

Nurseries are raised through the monsoon and transplanted once the first rains settle. A healthy, on-time transplant usually means an earlier first picking and better colour development through the cool months.

Weather through ripening

Clear days and cold nights from October to January push fruit from green to deep red. Fog and unseasonal rain delay ripening and compress arrivals into a shorter, more volatile window.

What it means for rates

A compressed harvest means sharper peaks and dips: strong rates for early clean lots, softer rates when everyone arrives together. Growers who can stage sales across the peak generally realise more than those who sell in one movement.